(Reuters)– “Worries about political extremism or threats to democracy have emerged as a top concern for U.S. voters and an issue where President Joe Biden has a slight advantage over Donald Trump ahead of the November election, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll showed.
Some 21% of respondents in the three-day poll, which closed on Sunday, said “political extremism or threats to democracy” was the biggest problem facing the U.S., a share that was marginally higher than those who picked the economy – 19% – and immigration – 18%.
Biden’s Democrats considered extremism by far the No. 1 issue while Trump’s Republicans overwhelmingly chose immigration. Extremism was independents’ top concern, cited by almost a third of independent respondents, followed by immigration, cited by about one in five. The economy ranked third.
During and since his presidency, Trump has kept up a steady drumbeat of criticism of U.S. institutions, claiming the four criminal prosecutions he faces are politically motivated and holding to his false claims that his 2020 election defeat was the result of widespread fraud. That rhetoric was central to his message to supporters ahead of their Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol.
Overall, 34% of respondents said Biden had a better approach for handling extremism, compared to 31% who said Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination. The poll helps show the extent to which Biden’s re-election bid could rely on voters being motivated by their opposition to Trump rather than enthusiasm over Biden’s candidacy.”
As I have mentioned before political polling has been a dumpster fire since 2016. What was once a bias towards Democrats, up until 2021. Has completely flipped to a Republican bias since the beginning of 2022 prior to the midterm elections. After implementing sweeping changes throughout the industry to its collection methods. To the extent that currently there is now at least a 5+% lean in favor of Republicans across the board.
The proof is in the actual voting data compared to pre-election opinion polling during this primary season. In each state so far Trump has underperformed his polling numbers by 7%-18% compared to voting results. While Biden’s results have consistently been 10+% points higher than his polling data. So I put very little stock into the fear-mongering and selective narratives that the media coverage creates surrounding these inaccurate guesstimates
However, there are certain trends and indicators in some of the opinion surveys that can suggest what’s the driving force behind a voter’s decision. In an era of divided political partisanship, the final outcomes are often won on the margins. So tracking the views of the independent electorate is where you can make educated predictions that closely mirror the actual turnout.
So the knowledge that Independents and Democrats both consider “political extremism or threats to democracy” as the #1 reason for their Presidential vote. Should be setting off alarm bells for the Trump campaign. Especially when the Republican candidate is the number one threat to democracy because of his politically extreme rhetoric and agenda. The Democratic candidate is of little concern if people are compelled to vote against Trump.
Unlike the economy, immigration, and crime where the statistical evidence all point to Democrats having a better record. Yet the opinion polls show Republicans have a better reputation on those specific issues. “Threats to our democracy” is one of the few categories where reputation and reality are aligned. So it paints a much clearer picture when that is the driving force behind a voting bloc’s motivation. There’s little subjectivity difference within the independent population on this specific topic.
As with most subjects, two things can be true at the same time, including opinion polling. They can be inherently flawed and often biased, deserving far less media attention due to their lack of credibility. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they are of no real-world political value. Charting trends and motivational reasoning of those who aren’t a fixture of either party. Can help predict whether someone will lean left or right when the time comes to fill out a ballot. By those metrics, you can sleep a little better knowing that the threat Donald Trump poses to American Democracy is not being overlooked by Independents.
Click the link below for the Reuters article quoted in this column
The-Anti-Social-Media Pro-DEMOCRACY WING 